AN EXTRACT FROM COMMODITTYONLINE.COM

By Andrew Mickey
Over the long run, everything is driven by interest rates. Stocks, bonds, gold, real estate, etc. are all heavily impacted by interest rates.

The return of the Euro debt contagion and drop in the bond markets across the world has pushed interest rates higher in the last few weeks and it has investors concerned and rightly so. Nowhere has the concern been more prominent than in gold.

A large and growing percentage of them have realized the real driver of gold prices is, has been, and will be negative real interest rates (nominal interest rates minus inflation).

Central bank policies of inducing negative real rates to incentives borrowing (you get paid to borrow), keep money supply expanding, and devalue currencies have forced investors into real assets like gold and silver.

It has happened before and it’s happening again:
Nominal rates have stayed very low throughout the last couple of years and are so low that real interest rates must be negative.

That’s starting to change as interest rates are back on the rise. And at this point, with gold nearing new all-time highs once again, it’s a prudent move to investigate whether the recent rise in rates could slow the gold bull or completely stop it in its tracks.

The Backdrop: QE2 Backfires, Rates Rise
Rates across the board have been on the rise since the Fed announced its latest round of quantitative easing.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed from 2.40% to a recent high of 2.90% - a relative rise of 20.8%.

The junk bond market has fared even worse. After a post credit crisis renaissance which saw record setting amounts of high-yield debt issues, the bull market has shown its first signs of weakness. The yield on CCC rated debt (official defined as: currently vulnerable and dependent upon favorable business, financial, and economic conditions to meet commitments) has increased from a 52-week low of 10.2% to 13.9% - a relative 36% increase.

Muni bonds have been hit too. The Republican takeover of the House has made a bailout of profligate spending states even more unlikely as more of them near insolvency. Merrill Lynch reports the yield investors expect on short-term muni debt has climbed from 2.4% to 3.2% - a relative increase of 33%.

In a gold bull market which has been fueled by negative real rates, conventional thinking would suggest rate increases would, at the very least, halt the rise of gold as the negative real rates get closer to turning positive. History, however, actually says the exact opposite is true.

Rising Rates: A Symptom of Inflationary Disease
The gold bull market of the 1970s was dominated by inflation. Interest rates rose steadily to keep up with it, but real interest rates were mostly negative the entire time.

In 13 of the 14 years tracked both interest rates and average gold prices rose. The only exception was 1981 which came after a year when average gold prices nearly doubled.

This time around we’re seeing a very similar situation. The 10-year Treasury bond yield has increased 30% and gold prices have climbed 55% since treasuries yields bottomed out in December 2008. That move is strikingly similar to 1979 when rates increased 24.3% and gold rose 58.72%.

At the risk of saying “this time is different” though, it really is. There’s no incoming Fed chief with plans of whipping inflation now (in fact, they’re taking steps to do the exact opposite). And the political will to induce a recession that would drive housing prices to their natural levels, put an end to the stock rally, destroy the bond market, and likely bottom out near the next election, is non-existent.

So if you’re concerned about the recent rise in rates – which you should be. Rising rates are not good for stocks, bonds, or the economy.

When it comes to the gold bull market however, interest rates are likely a symptom of growing underlying inflation and, if history is any example, their rise will coincide with gold.

We continue to believe what we said in our gold stock:
Normally, gold is a poor investment. Just look at the gold bear market between 1981 and 2001. Not much money was made in gold. And from a fundamental perspective, gold is a metal with virtually no industrial uses. Gold’s not like a piece of manufacturing equipment. It’s not productive capital which you can invest in and use to increase production of something. It’s gold.

Every few decades though, the right conditions come along to make an absolute fortune in gold and gold stocks. Right now the conditions are right. Rising interest rates are more a signal that conditions for gold are only improving.

gold hits a new record again....

SOLD GOLD AT 1330$ BUT FORGOT TO NOTICE MOVEMENT AND PATTERNS IN EURO AND DOLLOR INDEX WHICH WERE IN FAVOUR OF GOLD INCREASING....
I ATMOST SEE GOLD AT 1434$ OR SEE A BIG CORRECTION FROM 1393$...DEPENDS...ITS HAPPENING DUE TO MOVEMENT OF EURO AND US DOLLOR INDEX AND NOT BECAUSE OF GOLD’S OWN FUNDAMENTALS....GOLD MCX CAN ATMOST REACH TO 20043.20150,20730....ITS YET TO BE SEEN WHAT HAPPENS...BUT SELLING AT 1330 ACCOUNTS TO BE A WRONG DECISION NOW...
DETAILS...
1330$ EXCHANGE 45
RIGHT NOW WXCHANGE AT 44.135
BOUGHT GOLD $ AT 1383.7 AND SOLD MCX AT 19983....

GOLD IS GOLD ??

GOLD is not working on its own fundamentals,....its working on the psychic and circumstances views and beliefs created by the people economies govt and traders investors analysts....after everything its just a metal like anyother...that shines and precious still you cant eat it in food crisis...cant put it on if u not having money to spend....you cant live in it even if it booms and there is real estate crisis...lastly you cant spread it from the helicopter like paper currency that ben bernanke wishes to....only thing that takes out an economy from crisis is a good investment...good management....cutting debts and last but not the least...TIME THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING...FUNDAMENTALS,ECONOMIES,FACTORS.......;)
GOLD IS AT 1360$/OUNCE......30$ ABOVE MY TARGET LEVEL....LETS SEE....

SORRY!!!!!!

sorry has often been made as an excuse rather than a feeling of being guilty...whats the point of saying sorry if the motive is only to let the thing go...It should be said with a feeling of not repeating the act again and not as an excuse after repeating it once again.......ha ha.....oh sorry...ah sorry yar...achha na ! sorry...chal theek hai sorry bas kar yar...;);) :):) ;)
even I am trying to learn the depth of this word and not loose its importance by using it so often and so easily....:)

Gold is Glowing...

“The risk to the downside for gold is that, even for a brief period, investors decide they don’t want to buy any more,” Walker said. “That’s when prices could drop by $150 to $200 in a very short time.” ...................in this very scenario where everyone is just getting mad about gold.....most people either dont want to buy as the prices are beyond their reach...or the people who are buying are buying so much of it as a safe heaven in these debt crisis that they expect it to go to 1500$ or 2000$
................
this line in quotes is the only thing i liked and gave me a sense of relief...a sense of irony...and a sense of laughter too....ha ha ha...

Laughter in buses and trucks on road.......

This I noticed recently while going for work on a rickshaw..and from there got an idea to write something on "laughter in buses and trucks on roads"...well the laughter remains outside the vehicles in the quotes...weird ,sarcastic,informative,suggestive...all has a thread of laughter in them....

the very common quote written on trucks is.."HORN OK PLEASE"...in the very first instance i never got the meaning of this line...and till the last instance too...;)
....however it must means use horn while driving....
....other one is..."USE DIPPER AT NIGHT"...there is very much confusion on the spelling of dipper...even i get confused now...as it is written as Diaper,deeper,daper...etc...
there is one another which is..."buri nazar wale tera muh kala" which can be translated as the one with an evil eye has a black face....lol...;)
....
one i noticed very recently is...
"drivery seeki thi man behlane ke liye.dhanda ban gaya jindagi chalane ke liye"
which is translated as..learned driving for fun,however it became a profession for living....
one is like.."seth bada dildar hai par chamcho se pareshan hai" meaning::owner is very generous,though annoyed with his workers...
I noticed this word quiet a lot of times on above the driver's cabin in DTC buses...PILOT...
ha ha ha ha...well this gives me a good indication that where my flight is going to take off in a bus...lol...direct to hell...
However, my favourite line was the one I came across on a truck parked at a roadside dhabha at Moorthal in Delhi. It said 'Jija Nav Tan, Saali Tana Tan'. It means that the brother-in-law carries nine tons of weight, whereas the sister-in-law is sexy. I located the truck driver who was also the owner of the truck. Over a glass of country liquor, this guy from Haryana told me that he had a massive crush on his sister-in-law and therefore he had those lines written on his truck. I asked him if his wife didn't mind. He told me that in Haryana, it is not a taboo to flirt with sisters-in-law.
well...smiles come so easily...
and comes in plenty too...just look around...

whats next!!!!!!!!!

college gets over now....time to enter in some serious stuff..getting experience these days in the business set up by my father.many new things to be done now..many new things to experiment and to work upon..many new ideas many new wants many new responsibilities and many new expectations....for time being working hard...wish me luck...

A night out at a Railway Station.

Some days back one of my friend Angad was at home for a stay.We were getting bored and thought to have an ice-cream.It was then came in my mind to go and have a round of Old Delhi Railway Station near by my home.Though going inside was not allowed,we entered somehow through the luggage loading and unloading department.....I was in the very mood of enjoying the peculiar feeling that one feels when he or she is going on a journey...sitting on the platform,taking care of the luggage you got.the railway benches which give a cossy feeling when u sit on them,just because you hardly get one to sit,the tea stalls,and the magazines shop.the cloak rooms and a large large groups of people.....

lol...:):)

Mean while....enjoy these songs by John Mayer..

who says.....



dreaming with a broken heart...




i'd love u to want me....

Having a good time...unexpectedly..

lol....yes yes you are right....we are the future....

Visit to Agroha...a place near Hissar haryana....

The trip started last saturday and ended sunday night.I enjoyed myself sitting in the driver's cabin in the bus and spending time with myself.Agroha is a spritual place and being developed as a city.It has a Hindu temple based on King Agrasen who is Known as a great ruler and the origin of BANIYA community in INDIA...
I am not a believer of casteism and communities and dividing people on basis of relgion color caste and places positions....so it was a fun trip for me to another new place nearby....Soon is coming the spritual and professional side of me...so keep smiling...keep loving...
here are a set of pictures that will explain the whole outing...

Nothing much....

Just spending time with myself....Nothing much...Nothing actually....Moving on sometimes get so hard.And the fear of something keeps you away from doing that thing....
Things take turns...a lot of them.You just cant deny or stop them....Rock hard...and just move...:):(:):(:):(:):(:))))((((

an amazing video

this video is filmed by my bro...i found it really good...it is a video from inside of a air craft while it is landing...
be cautious...mobile needs to be switched off during flights.his cell was on flight/offline mode...
:):)

notice the shadow of the aircraft.....

the first time in a helicopter..

the first time i sat in a helicopter while going from katra to saanji chat in vaishno devi...a spritual place in himachal.
it was an amazing experience...
mind blowing!!!!!!
:):)

A song by maroon 5.......

Beauty queen of only eighteen
She had some trouble with herself
He was always there to help her
She always belonged to someone else

I drove for miles and miles
And wound up at your door
I�ve had you so many times but somehow
I want more

I don�t mind spending everyday
Out on your corner in the pouring rain
Look for the girl with the broken smile
Ask her if she wants to stay awhile
And she will be loved
She will be loved

Tap on my window knock on my door
I want to make you feel beautiful
I know I tend to get insecure
It doesn�t matter anymore

It�s not always rainbows and butterflies
It�s compromise that moves us along
My heart is full and my door�s always open
You can come anytime you want

I don�t mind spending everyday
Out on your corner in the pouring rain
Look for the girl with the broken smile
Ask her if she wants to stay awhile
And she will be loved
She will be loved

I know where you hide
Alone in your car
Know all of the things that make you who you are
I know that goodbye means nothing at all
Comes back and begs me to catch her every time she falls

Music is what feelings sound like:)

on 10th feb i was at the hotel claridges with my uncle for attending a seminar on keniya tourism....Though I was misplaced there,I was enjoying the experience.There I found a person called Steavens who was a piano player there.Seeing him I can really say he got magic in his fingers.
I approached him and was listening to a fantastic music piece.
when he stopped I just had an introduction and asked him if he could play a romantic song"hero" by enrique....well he smilingly accepted and played it for us....This one is dedicated to you...when he completed the piece...he said...hope you and everyone likes it...I just gave him an applaud ....:):)

AN ACQUAINTANCE.............

yesterday it was 9 in the morning when i jost woke up with a familiar voice,a person who sings abstract songs on the streets and collect money from households and passer bys as his living...certainly after a long time he happened to be in my colony singing the same songs....
this time I quicky got up from my bed went outside and filmed him.....
here is a small video of him.....


if you listen to full video...you will not be able to hear the last line.....here is it...daulat ke andhero mei tera bik gaya imaan...allah ke bande jara maa bap ko pehchaan...alaah ki nazron mei bada pare shabd insaan...